Category: Uncategorized

Lowest NYPD headcount… ever?

Bloomberg reports: “City officials said they planned to cut the next five classes of new police hires, bringing the city’s total number of uniformed officers to roughly 29,000 by the end of fiscal year 2025, which would be the smallest force since 1993.” Emphasis added. Similar accounts from the NY Post. But in 1993 Transit…
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Loud parties and the law

“Man fatally shot after leaving party at notorious Brooklyn horror home that NYPD has ignored: neighbors,” says the headline. https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-man-fatally-shot-leaving-brooklyn-house-party-20230812-o7y5h2secrb5tk5h3lxsrernea-story.html So you’ve got a long time nuance and the neighbors (“the community”) hate it. This is a weekly event. People pay money. There are fireworks! So neighbors call police. They expect police to shut it…
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Enforce Gun Laws

Forget about the shooters or victims for a moment. Thing about everybody else on the block. Well kept homes with gardens. They matter, too. Not just for their sake but for our sake and the sake of Philadelphia. How many of you wouldn’t move if this happened where you live? Fuck: “OMG, what can we…
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QPP 57: Rene Ropac and NY Bail Reform

Ropac discussion bail reform in NYC. The report is here: https://datacollaborativeforjustice.org/work/bail-reform/does-new-yorks-bail-reform-law-impact-recidivism-a-quasi-experimental-test-in-new-york-city/ The youtube, for those who can’t focus, is here: https://youtu.be/RmjThYI5xPI

Shooting victims on a map

The Trace has an online map of gunshot victims and fatalities over the past 9 years. It’s not perfect data. It seems vastly undercount (or not count) non-fatal shootings in areas without much press. And in New York City, it undercounts shooting incidents and victims by 17% and 20%. OK… but it’s still a pretty…
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The King of Fountain Square

There was a tweet that got my attention because it’s my hometown of Evanston. Five city workers “beat up a senior citizen after a verbal altercation.” Sounds bad. It’s like a police brutality video, but without the police. So it’s the same, but different. My first response was to assume the beaters were at fault…
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The 1994 Crime Bill Wasn’t Actually Bad

I read an article today and there was one line that stood out: “…and as legislation like the 1994 crime bill passed, mass incarceration rose dramatically.” The article isn’t even about the 1994 Crime Bill, which is why the line stood out. It’s just kind of a throwaway line I’ve seen before, asserting a common…
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More youth recidivism after “raise the age”

I don’t know how NY manages to mess up things other do OK. Things like bail reform, legal marijuana, hot dogs, and raise the age. I don’t get this. Really. Not being facetious. Advocates pushed for “raise the age” (moving 16- and 17-year-old offenders down to “family court”) to benefit them. It was supposed to…
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NY arrests, pre-trial release, and rearrests

Far be it for me to say if these changes are because of changes in law, police, bail reform, or prosecution,but things have changed in NY. And blaming “bail reform” may be simplistic. But crime AND recidivism have gotten worse, and “changes in law, policing, bail reform, discovery reform, the diaphragm law, raise the age,…
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A list of research on police and crime prevention

It’s strangely common to hear something like, “we _know_ police don’t prevent crime.” It’s a dangerous and false mantra. Sometimes Manning (1979), Gottfredson and Hirschi (1990), Koenig (1991), Tonry (1995), and Bayley (1994) are cited, but I don’t think they even meant that police have no effect on crime. Here is a (partial, in progress)…
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