Introduction

Urban violence is also the linchpin of concentrated urban poverty, holding all the other conditions of inequality — joblessness, homelessness, poor education, and health — in place. That’s why we must put urban violence first in terms of sequence, if not importance. Until we pull this pin, poverty in our cities will remain as persistent as ever. A neighborhood that is not safe will never prosper. — Thomas Abt

by Peter Moskos, professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice

This is a collection of essays on how to reduce violence: solution, not rhetoric; policy, not theory. I asked people from my personal and professional and social media circles how they would reduce violence. Now. This year. I don’t want long-term solutions (as needed as those are); I don’t want visions of “reimagining” society (as needed as that may be). Many of the essays are based on various ways police can prevent crime. Others are only tangentially related to policing. But they all focus on the “here and now” of reality- and evidence-based solutions, on bettering the society we have rather than visions of the society we want. These essays focus on the proximate causes of violence and not the “root causes.” Because, quite frankly, the former saves lives. And as the bodies pile up, I don’t want to wait for the latter.

The rise in violence in America in 2020 is unprecedented. For instance, 1,800 people have been shot in New York City this year (as of 12/13/20). Last year the number was 855. Since June, after protests related to the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, the increase in violence is even more dramatic. More than 4,000 people have been shot in Chicago this year and 759 killed (as of 12/19/20) compared to last year’s (still tragic but much better) figures of 2,756 shot and 463 killed.

What’s amazing about New York is how quickly the increase started, and at a very specific moment in mid to late June. There were hints of in increase last November and also in May 2020. But it wasn’t until the week of June 7th that shootings doubled and would stay two- to three-times higher than the previous year.

The total number of total shooting victims in NYC, year to date, in 2020, despite COVID, was on par with 2019 in terms of shooting victims. At least until 37 people were shot in the week of May 10th. The divergence between this year and last doesn’t become dramatic until after June 7th. Mind you, even a 10% or 20% increase would be dramatic. But now we have a 100% year-to-date increase, with almost all this increase happening just in the last six months of 2020). After June 7th, shootings went up 152%

Unfortunately, in terms of more rising violence, New York and Chicago aren’t unique. Jeff Asher collects timely data on murders. (It is a shame our government fails to do so.) The only cities of size which haven’t seen an increase in murder are Baltimore and Newark, NJ. In America’s top 65 cities, murders are up in all but 6, and collectively by more than 33%. It’s hard to put such a one-year increase in perspective because it really is unprecedented. It’s never happened before. Double-digit percentage increases in murder happened in 1966, 1967, and 1968. But even then, the collectively three-year increase was only(?) 38%.

For 25 years after 1970, the murder rate stayed around 8 to 10 victims per 100,000 annually. Then violence declined in the 1990s. In absolute numbers, murders declined from 24,703 in 1991 to 14,249 in 2014. Unfortunately, 2014 will likely represent a nadir in American violence. The 2014 murder rate of 4.5 per 100,000 was the lowest since 1956. Then violence increased in 2015 and 2016 before leveling off and even declining slightly in 2018. 2019 saw almost no change.

2020 is a unique year for many reasons, including COVID, protests, looting, and nationwide urban unrest. Causes of increased violence will always can be debated (I certainly have my own opinions on the matter), but are discussed here only tangentially. People who smell victims’ blood don’t have the luxury of debating causal theories. The public expects public agencies to respond. The question is, how?

2014 with its record low violence was only six years ago. Think of the progress that had been made over the preceding 20 years. In 1994, 23,330 Americans were murdered (11,800 Black). In 2014 those figures had dropped to 14,250 and 7,100, respectively. That is literally tens of thousands of people not being shot. It’s a lot of trauma that wasn’t experienced. Unfortunately, 2020 will probably see those number back up to around 20,000 murdered (with 11,000 Black victims).

In hindsight, even 2019 wasn’t so bad. What were we doing right? Or at least better. How can we do it again? As quickly as violence goes up, violence can come down. New York City, from 1994 to 1998, decreased murders by 20% (give or take) for each of five consecutive years. (Those reductions occurred while the number of people living in poverty in NYC was increasing.) It can be done. It needs to be done. I know we have other problems, but we can’t simply blame COVID, to take but one example, as an excuse for inaction. We can’t let this become the “new normal.”

It’s hard to overstate the damage of thousands of more murders and tens of thousands of more victims of violent trauma. Of course there is first and foremost the victim, but the trauma of violence expands brutally, both outward and through the generations. Its tentacles engulf family, friends, and loved ones. Even the perpetrators of violence experience trauma and as one looks more broadly one sees the trauma extending to police officers, paramedics, and even reporters. This trauma goes outwards through the criminal justice system, to courts, jails, and correctional officers. Violence destroys homes, relationships, jobs, neighborhoods, and entire cities.

None of these essays are an attempt to “fear monger.” Ultimately these essays were written by caring individuals who know violence can be reduced.

The 2020 increase in violence isn’t evenly spread between groups or neighborhoods. Most neighborhoods remain perfectly free of gun violence. Most people do not live at risk of being shot. The problem is that for those who are at risk, the risk got much greater. The median age of a murder victim is 30. Half the victims are between the ages of 18 and 33. Approximately 80% of murder victims are men. Just over half are Black. Blacks are approximately seven-times as likely as whites to be murdered, and this racial disparity is growing. The fact that the risk of violence is not uniform across society should be all the reason to care even more.  

I won’t summarize the essays here, but some themes appear repeatedly, no matter the topic. And the solutions to many of these issues wouldn’t be that hard or expensive to implement, if we had the will.

• We need a national clearinghouse of reliable data collection of crimes, of shootings, of victims, and of police use-of-force.
• Public safety can’t only be focused offenders, but needs to take the rest of the neighborhood into account.
• People with serious mental conditions need better care, treatment, supervision.
• Police need to focus on gun offenders.
• Prosecutors need to focus on gun offenders.
• The problem of violence is largely driven by a few repeat violent offenders.
• Preventing violence helps both potential victims and potential offenders.
• Quality-of-life issues matter.
• The problems of violence add quality-of-life disproportionately harm Black Americans and Black communities.
• Broken Windows policing (distinguished from “zero-tolerance”) is an effective form of order maintenance and can reduce violence.
• Police can and must do better.
• Improved police-community relations goes hand-in-hand with better policing and violence reduction.
• This year’s rise of violence is substantial.
• Inaction in the face of rising violence is unconscionable.

Many of the authors are professors with PhDs, and more than a few are written by past and present police officers. These categories, of course, are not mutually exclusive. But I hope the essays written by active cops, some without college degrees, draw your attention because these are the unique perspectives of men and women “on the job” trying to save lives. I’m grateful so many reached out to me and wanted to contribute to this project. They write with voices that should be heard. They write because they care.

Violence reduction will only come from changes in law, policy, practice, and culture. It will come from the hard work of police, prosecutors, paramedics, parents, professors, and politicians. And that’s just the “P’s.” Also needed is the dedication of mental health care workers, teachers, social workers, church leaders, nurses, doctors, surgeons, activists, violence interrupters, neighbors, and individuals. In other words, all of us: “society.” We need collaboration and cooperation from those who care. We need the help of those who realize that not only is change for the better possible, but that doing anything less is not an option.

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Peter Moskos is a professor of Law, Police Science, and Criminal Justice Administration at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. He is the director of John Jay College’s NYPD Executive Master’s Program and the author of three books. Moskos is a former Baltimore City Police Officer and has a PhD from Harvard in Sociology.